Sure it’s easy to be convinced about coming lower lows, recessions, and more doom and gloom talk but before thinking that each new yearly low is a short, let’s remember that has not worked in 2022. Here’s what I watching for a more even-keeled look at this macro-charged market.
Based on Thursday’s close bears have every opportunity to push prices lower on Friday. It could be a binary situation around the employment data, but these are the levels that I’ll consider for support if we do get that next round of weakness.
Is the process still in play? What has transpired since the July discussion and what are we measuring to track the support holds?
Heading into today’s session I was looking for a bounce, and while it didn’t materialize right at the open, it was the easiest trade of the day. Let’s review what brought us there and where it might lead into tomorrow.
In this video, we look at today’s big rip higher after the FED raises rates again another .75% and then the immediate roll over of the market. We dropped about 150 points on the ES from the top to the bottom. We have seen this price action before on FED days and it was because Powell says they are going to keep raising rates. We talk about the next big events coming up and what to watch for. Be on your toes for Friday’s NFP numbers and next week’s biggie, the CPI numbers. Lastly, we talk about how I have been trading this market and how I can help you.
In this video, we look at today’s big rip higher after the FED raises rates again another .75% and then the immediate roll over of the market. We dropped about 150 points on the ES from the top to the bottom. We have seen this price action before and it was because Powell says they are going to keep raising rates. We talk about the next big events coming up and what to watch for. Be on your toes for Friday’s NFP numbers and next week’s biggie, the CPI numbers. Lastly, we talk about how I have been trading this market and how I can help you.
We heard from the FOMC today as expected but evidently the market heard some unexpected in the presser as it reversed back to last Thursday’s lows. Given this development, I will try to make the best read of what I am seeing so that we can make a plan for what lies ahead.
The Arms Index is one of the lesser followed market internals, but one that I’ve found helpful in extreme situations. One of those situations presented itself on Wednesday and is worth following into tomorrow.